Gartner, an American research company, announced Peak of Inflated Expectations. At the same time, Gartner Japan published Japan's Hype Cycle for Future-Proof Infrastructure: 2023. Gartner's Hype Cycle describes five stages from the emergence of a technology to its stabilization. It is divided into five stages, from "dawn period" to "peak of 'excessive expectations'", "disillusionment period", "enlightenment period", and "productivity stabilization period". Some technologies disappear along the way. According to Gartner, emerging technologies represented in this Hype Cycle have the potential to transform over the next two to ten years.
Let's look at some of the more interesting technologies on the left side of the Hype Cycle. "Earlier" names included GitOps, Cloud Development Environments, Internal Developer Portal (IDP), and WebAssembly. Generative AI was placed at the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" due to high expectations and numerous products claiming to integrate it, while "Cloud-Native ” ranks to the right of it, although the actual benefits are often lower than what the vendors claim. One of the characteristics of this year is that Gartner's Advanced Technology Maturity Cycle includes many advanced technology names that have not been heard before, such as GitOps, WebAssembly, live AI, Cloud-Native, etc. Many keywords that IT engineers are already familiar with are listed. in a relatively quiet place.
Web3, NFT, Metaverse, Quantum Computing, Blockchain and other names entering the "Trough of Disillusionment". That is, due to the exaggerated expectations not being met, it seems that when Facebook changed the company name to Meta, the public had great expectations for the Metaverse. Now that the enthusiasm has cooled, the technology has become somewhat obsolete, and some early adopters may be disillusioned . But these technologies are gradually moving towards the "Slope of Enlightenment", where the practical benefits of the technology become clearer and more practical applications emerge. It is expected that NFT technology will enter the "Plateau of Productivity" in two to five years, while the Metaverse technology will take five to ten years. At this stage, the mature technology has found its place in the market, resulting in Wider and more consistent adoption.
By the way, the "disillusionment period", "enlightenment period", and "productivity stabilization period" in this picture do not write any technical names. The same is true starting in 2021, thinking that Gartner in the US will not focus on technologies that have already passed their peaks in this chart.
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